Markets have been bullish since mid July and everybody has been raving about it, from the optimistics who are ranting that the bottom has been touched to the pessimistics who are claiming that as soon as the holidays are over the honeymoon will end. So here we go, first days of September and the markets keep climbing while gold and black gold ( crude oil) fall. The news are alledgedly good as US GDP has been better than expected and who cares if debts keep worsening. A last rebound for Freddie and FAnnie claim to the world that the battle isn’t lost yet.
Truth is as a trader I just trade what I see. Today the market go up and you will find me going up with it. Tomorrow is another day and I will gladly do the same. When I go against it ( it is called a reversal or a pullback or a retracement for the ones who wants technical words), I am carefully setting my tragets as I don’t want to be caught up on the wrong side of the trend. I have become the type of person who says things like :” this markets looks like it is going to keep trending up…unless it doesn’t”. It drives people potty, but any good trader knows what I mean. You can have all the signs, but a warning is worth all of them. I have been careful as the reality of this job is that most people who try it end up at the cleaners. I’ve been doing it for 3 years now and I am still there. In itself it is quite an achievement. If you’re not a trader, you have no idea.
Somebody pointed out to me a few weeks ago that I love my job and I loved the markets. I was intrigued by his remark until I noticed that most people don’t. They are in for the money ( whatever your job, who isn’t? It’s called work for a reason),but if you can be in for more, that’s a plus. Turns out, I am in for more than that. I like trading because it teaches you that the world is one big place where everything happens for a reason. You have to be pretty smart to figure this one out, right? But since I started trading I’ve learned to see other people ‘s point of view. I learned that it is sometimes unwise to go against the mass but you still can if you’re a contrarian. Then you have to learn if the time’s right, and once you have this one under your belt you have to learn to manage your finances. Once you trust you’ve got it, you have to realise that your set ups are not worth a chicken pellet anymore and you have to clear your ideas and start from afresh. I read several dozens of books, watch webinars, went to seminars, consulted great traders, wrote down all kind of research and spent countless hours just watching the markets and checking all kind of indicators, strategies, internals and news. I learned that things that had been true for the last 30 years could become invalid overnight. That certain things are cyclical but most of them are not. I learned that some traders rely on their beliefs and some on their superstitions to hold on. I learned that you can be right and wrong at the same time ( right about the set up and wrong about the time /and/or/your stoploss,etc). I learned that your health can suffer, that your cholesterol levels can shoot up, that your eyes can pay a hefty price for computer watching all day, that you put on weight, that you have to master your moods and your nerves if you want to keep your family sane and that finally, sometimes, it is not enough. I’ve learned to listen to other traders ideas and discoveries and learned that there is a world of difference between something they say ( ” should have gotten in here and set your target here and stoploss there for a profit of 82 pts in half a day…easy!” ) and what they do ( ” is this what you’ve done ?” is my usual question. The answer is almost always no.). I’ve learned that you can take two steps away and wonder what happened to your children, since when did they all grew an inch and a half, and wonder if you’re not wasting what is important in life ( this one ended up 3 months away from my brokers but funnily enough I kept reading and watching the results of the markets every night). Finally you learn that you’re still there, that there are a lot of theories and as many people out there and that as long as you’re making money, that is all that matters. ( Yeah right).
So the markets are rallying. Why not? I say. They will come down again- or go sideways. I will keep learning- and some things will have nothing to do with what I do. I will keep trading because that is what I love to do. And I hope I will keep meeting a lot of people as it keeps this job being interesting!